1. “Freest
and Fairest Elections” is an historical misnomer.
While these elections have been
touted as the “Freest and Fairest” in the history of Myanmar[1][2],
that distinction is a relatively easy one to come by. Born out of British
Colonialism, the country of Myanmar has been steeped in political and social
unrest since the hastily written 1947 Constitution and the refusal of the
central government to honor its initial promise of to allow ethnic minority
regions to eventually secede from the centralized government.[3]
The most recent elections in Myanmar, an abbreviated by-election 2012 for 44
vacant and contested seats, yielded victories for the opposition party in all
but one seat. While these elections were a success for the NLD, and won Aung
San Suu Kyi (the leader of the NLD) a seat in the lower house of parliament,
they did not bring significant change or political power for the opposition,
and exposed many backhanded and fraudulent tactics by the ruling government.[4] In
fact, the only relatively free elections (that had the potential to change the
power structure of the company) that have taken place in country since the 1962
coup d’état (which lead to the eventual rise to power of Ne Win) occurred in
1990, when the NLD won by a landslide, but whose results were violently voided
by the military-backed incumbent government.
2.
If
the Elections are Truly “Free and Fair,” the NLD will win in a landslide
While there is not reliable
polling data for any of the regions in Myanmar, from anecdotal attendance of
events, and discussions with party leaders and citizens across Shan State and Yangon, the consensus is that
there would be no feasible way for the USDP (The ruling party of Myanmar) to
gain a substantial victory. One female organizer for the NLD in Shan State said,
with resigned humor and laughter: “There are only two way for this election to
end: either we achieve dominate victory, or we end up in handcuffs.”[5]
3.
If
the NLD prevails it will be because of the celebrity of Aung San Suu Kyi and her
personal and familial history in the activism for change in Myanmar.
While there are no Q-Scores in
Myanmar, Aung San Suu Kyi is by far the most recognizable and beloved figure
among the people of Myanmar, regardless of their ethnicity. Much of this is
related to her presence and support for the uprisings in 1988 and her campaign
and (annulled) victory over the government in 1990. While she has faced some
criticism recently for her dealings as a politician, and her refusal to come
out in strong support of the Student Union protests that were violently cracked
down by the military junta this past spring[6],
she is still the greatest hope for widespread change that the country of Myanmar
has seen since her own father, Aung San. In fact, the Panglong Agreement of
1947, which Aung San organized as a way to pull together the Kachin, Shan, and
Chin minority groups toward a peaceful and united country, has been used by the
NLD in the current election as a rallying cry to gain traction in the minority
controlled border regions.[7]
4.
The Ethnic
Regions will Decide the Fate of this Election.
Because of the presence and many
regional parties representing various ethnic groups and independence movements,
the NLD will face its greatest opposition for seats in the rural regions.[8] There
are 135 (recognized) ethnic minority groups in Myanmar, and the votes of the
rural ethnic regions are being courted heavily by both the ruling USDP and the
NLD. With good reason, the NLD is worried about vote-splitting in many ethnic
areas. In these many of these regions, the USDP has been exploiting their power
of judicial enforcement to avoid campaign finance restrictions and gain an edge
over the NLD.[9] In
theory, each candidate is only allowed to spend 10 million kjay (around $7,500)
on their campaign, but there have been widespread reports of vote-buying by the
USDP.[10][11][12]
In one region in southern Shan State, the USDP has been paying ethnic
minorities such as the Pah-Oh, Palaung, and Danu 10,000 kjat per day (around
$8.50) to show up to their rallies, dress in their traditional attire, and sing
USDP songs.[13] Because
of the difficulty of policing electoral fairness in remote villages, these
areas could become a breeding ground for imbalanced election practices. For
example, in one region in southern Shan state, where 2 MPs will be elected (out
of nearly 700) along with 1 state and 1 local governmental representation, there
are nearly 300 villages that need to be accounted for and campaigned in. There
is simply no way that the EU representatives who will be present in the country
could possibly monitor the fairness of elections in each of these villages.
5.
International
Stakes, Response, and Involvement
Because of Myanmar’s rich resources
and geographical proximity to both India and China, these elections will be
watched closely by many of the major world powers. China especially has had a
recent history of extracting resources from Myanmar at the expense of its
people and ethnic groups. [14][15][16]
In fact, an NLD leader and community organizer in Shan State shared with me
that he was offered bribes by both the Myanmar government and a Chinese company
after he visited a copper mine in the region with poor working conditions.[17]
From my conversations with NLD organizers in the region, they believe that the
Chinese may be funneling in money and resources to the USDP in order to retain
their stronghold on cheap labor and resources in the border regions of Shan
State and Kachin State. While the United States has shown an increasing
interest in steering the country toward democracy and reform,[18]
the United States has increasingly taken a line of cautious criticism and a
lack of interventionism.[19]
6.
Even
with a resounding win by the opposition, the country faces major hurdles going
forward.
As noted before, there is not a
whole lot of optimism on the part of many NLD officials. They know they will
win the vote, but, as one prominent NLD leader in Shan asked me: “Do you think
a government which has been in power here since 1962 will go down so easily?
No. No one knows what will happen after this election.”[20]
Because of a complicated electoral system, even with a decisive NLD victory, we
would not see an NLD president until March, when the upper parliament will take
a majority for between 3 candidates, one nominated from each parliament, and
one nominated by the military members of parliament.[21]
The 2008 constitution (which has been vilified by opposition parties and
international research institutions)[22][23][24] guarantees
the military at least 25% of the available total seats in both parliaments, and
also bars Aung San Suu Kyi from becoming president because her sons both have
British citizenship.[25]
The constitution is also structured to prevent amendment, stating that in order
to change the constitution there must be a greater than 75% super-majority in
the upper house to be able to enact change (and that the military gets to
decide 25% of the votes). Additionally, for many of the controversial sections
mentioned earlier, an additional nation-wide referendum popular vote must be
carried out.[26] The
greatest issues facing Myanmar today are education and public health, and none
of these can be addressed in meaningful ways without widespread governmental
reforms. Many people in the country, including leaders inside the NLD, are not
optimistic about rapid change, and these elections would only be a first step
in a long race towards democracy and freedom.
[1] http://edition.cnn.com/2015/07/09/asia/myanmar-elections-date-set-qa/
[2] http://www.wsj.com/articles/myanmar-election-commission-sets-date-for-general-elections-1436349340
[5]
Personal Interview
[6] http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/timeline-of-student-protests-against-education-law.html
[7] http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/16344-daw-suu-woos-ethnic-voters-in-pao-zone.html
[8] http://www.networkmyanmar.org/images/stories/PDF19/Lall-MEP.pdf
[9] http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/opinion/16871-time-to-reform-campaign-financing.html
[10] http://www.wsj.com/articles/allegations-of-vote-buying-cloud-myanmar-election-1446237481
[11] http://www.irrawaddy.org/election/news/courting-with-cash-usdp-dogged-by-vote-buying-accusations
[12] http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/nay-pyi-taw/16345-vote-buying-reports-pervade-ahead-of-campaigning.html
[13]
Personal observations
[14] http://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesasia/2015/10/22/booming-chinese-demand-for-jade-fuels-armed-conflict-and-entrenched-corruption-in-myanmar/
[15] http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/24/opinion/the-plunder-of-myanmar.html?_r=0
[16] http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/20/world/asia/anti-china-resentment-flares-over-myanmar-mine.html
[17]
Personal Interview
[18] http://world.time.com/2012/11/19/obama-in-burma-u-s-presidents-landmark-visit-brings-hope-criticism/
[19] http://www.irrawaddy.org/election/news/obama-aide-wraps-burma-visit-airing-election-hopes-conceding-flaws
[20]
Personal Interview
[21]
Myanmar Constitution, Article 60
[22] https://www.ictj.org/sites/default/files/ICTJ-Myanmar-Impunity-Constitution-2009-English.pdf
[23] http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/node/1439
[24] http://www.burmalibrary.org/docs6/2008_Myanmar_constitution--analysis_and_assessment-Yash_Ghai.pdf
[25]
Myanmar Constitution, Article 59f, 109b
[26]
Myanmar Constitution, Article 436a, 436b
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